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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
3
0
3
6
3
1
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
14
22
51
3
0
3
6
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
13
13
25
38
0
38
75
38
13
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
25
39
89
5
0
5
11
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.64 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.158 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.158 true Kuipers skill score: 0.050
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.275 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.725 0.500
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00