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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
1
0
1
2
3
4
1
8
5
6
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
12
12
19
43
3
4
1
8
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
19
38
6
0
6
13
19
25
6
50
31
38
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
5
11
21
21
33
75
5
7
2
14
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.33 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.39 0.35
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.287 true Heidke skill score: -0.117
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.294 true Kuipers skill score: -0.120
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.048 0.245 0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.108 -0.103 -0.158
equitable threat score:
-0.035 -0.045 -0.083
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.062 0.667 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 1.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.721 0.875
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00