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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
0
3
0
3
0
0
1
1
3
3
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
17
18
17
52
0
0
1
1
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
0
13
50
0
38
0
38
0
0
13
13
38
38
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
2
7
30
32
30
91
0
0
2
2
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.875 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.89 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.812 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.805 true Heidke skill score: 0.099
Kuipers skill score: 0.812 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.786 true Kuipers skill score: 0.101
threat score:
0.750 1.000 0.500
threat score:
0.143 0.346 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.600 1.000 0.429
equitable threat score:
0.081 0.044 0.036
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.150 1.000 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.654 0.000
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00