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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
4
0
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
16
18
18
52
2
0
1
3
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
40
0
20
60
80
0
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
28
32
32
91
4
0
2
5
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.89 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.286 true Heidke skill score: 0.074
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.076
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.100 0.346 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.044 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.100 1.000 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.654 0.667
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00