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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
0
2
3
0
1
1
2
1
2
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
10
15
28
53
0
1
1
2
10
17
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
14
29
14
0
29
43
0
14
14
29
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
18
26
49
93
0
2
2
4
18
30
53
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 3.12 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.273 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.321 true Kuipers skill score: -0.035
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.273 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.105 -0.207 -0.037
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.021 -0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.717 0.500
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00