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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
5
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
11
16
23
50
2
2
1
5
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
14
29
0
0
0
0
29
29
14
71
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
19
28
40
88
4
4
2
9
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.78 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.061 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.067 0.308 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.045 0.000 -0.094
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.006 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.071 0.889 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.680 0.800
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00