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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
2
3
3
8
0
0
0
0
3
5
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
20
15
17
52
0
0
0
0
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
15
15
38
15
23
23
62
0
0
0
0
23
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
4
9
35
26
30
91
0
0
0
0
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 1.60 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 3.06 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.026 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.027 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.143 0.300 0.000
threat score:
0.040 0.278 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.011 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.036 -0.013 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.600 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.625 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.712 0.000
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00