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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
0
0
2
2
2
0
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
19
17
18
54
0
0
2
2
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
0
17
17
0
33
50
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
33
30
32
95
0
0
4
4
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.18 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.308 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.050 0.315 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.033 0.024 0.067
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.050 1.000 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.685 0.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00