CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
16
17
19
52
0
1
3
4
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
80
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
28
30
33
91
0
2
5
7
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.89 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.111 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: 0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.321 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.016 0.062
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.673 0.250
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00