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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
17
20
53
0
1
3
4
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
30
35
93
0
2
5
7
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.94 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.315 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 0.062
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.250
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00