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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
16
17
21
54
1
0
1
2
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
25
0
0
25
25
0
25
50
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
28
30
37
95
2
0
2
4
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.00 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.309 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.200 -0.143 0.333
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.001 0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.685 0.500
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00