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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
10
20
22
52
0
1
1
2
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
17
17
50
0
0
17
17
0
17
17
33
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
18
35
39
91
0
2
2
4
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 2.36 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.040 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.077 0.370 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.200 -0.125 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.002 0.007
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.091 0.909 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.615 0.500
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00