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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
10
20
22
52
0
1
2
3
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
0
40
0
0
0
0
0
20
40
60
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
18
35
39
91
0
2
4
5
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.36 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.412 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.438 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.083 0.370 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.444
equitable threat score:
0.053 -0.002 0.031
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.909 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.615 0.333
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00