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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
10
21
22
53
0
0
2
2
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
0
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
18
37
39
93
0
0
4
4
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.41 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.600 true Heidke skill score: 0.066
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.600 true Kuipers skill score: 0.064
threat score:
0.500 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.083 0.389 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.053 0.016 0.050
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.955 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.604 0.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00