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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
2
2
1
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
9
21
23
53
1
0
1
2
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
0
40
0
0
20
20
20
0
20
40
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
16
37
40
93
2
0
2
4
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.41 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.083 0.389 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.091 -0.111 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.053 0.016 0.007
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.091 0.955 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.604 0.500
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00