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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
13
21
20
54
0
0
0
0
14
23
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
40
0
60
20
0
20
40
0
0
0
0
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
23
37
35
95
0
0
0
0
25
40
35
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.35 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.313 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.062 0.375 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.071 -0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.017 -0.023 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.071 0.913 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.611 0.000
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00