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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
12
22
20
54
0
0
0
0
14
23
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
33
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
5
21
39
35
95
0
0
0
0
25
40
35
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.35 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.133 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.089 0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.143 0.957 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.593 0.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00