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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
2
0
0
2
2
0
1
3
6
1
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
14
17
19
50
2
0
1
3
18
18
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
11
11
44
22
0
0
22
22
0
11
33
67
11
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
7
25
30
33
88
4
0
2
5
32
32
37
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 2.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.78 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.102 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.100 0.333 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.125 -0.080 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.039 0.034 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.111 0.944 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.660 0.667
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00