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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
2
0
0
2
3
0
0
3
6
0
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
14
18
20
52
3
0
0
3
18
18
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
14
29
29
0
0
29
43
0
0
43
86
0
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
25
32
35
91
5
0
0
5
32
32
37
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.89 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.667 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.053 0.346 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.135 0.000 -0.120
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.044 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.056 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.654 1.000
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00