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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
2
0
1
3
5
0
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
18
20
52
2
0
1
3
18
18
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
17
0
0
17
33
0
17
50
83
0
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
25
32
35
91
4
0
2
5
32
32
37
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.89 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.217 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.111 0.346 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.044 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.400 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.111 1.000 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.654 0.667
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00