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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
1
1
2
3
5
10
3
4
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
18
11
16
45
2
3
5
10
21
15
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
0
15
0
0
8
8
15
23
38
77
23
31
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
32
19
28
79
4
5
9
18
37
26
37
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.25 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.00 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.081 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.074 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.455
threat score:
0.045 0.224 0.192
equitable threat score:
0.152 -0.066 0.060
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.023 0.059
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.048 0.733 0.238
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.756 0.500
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00