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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
1
2
4
7
3
4
4
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
18
11
17
46
1
2
4
7
21
15
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
18
0
36
0
0
0
0
9
18
36
64
27
36
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
7
32
19
30
81
2
4
7
12
37
26
37
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 3.07 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.321 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.325 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.087 0.220 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.233 0.000 0.327
equitable threat score:
0.024 -0.029 0.066
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.095 0.733 0.190
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.761 0.429
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00