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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
6
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
4
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
6
19
11
20
50
0
0
1
1
21
15
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
50
0
75
0
0
13
13
0
0
13
13
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
0
11
33
19
35
88
0
0
2
2
37
26
37
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.25 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 3.33 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.150 true Kuipers skill score: -0.046
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.080 0.204 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.111 -0.111 0.429
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.053 0.031
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.095 0.733 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.780 0.000
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00