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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
1
7
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
1
2
5
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
1
7
20
10
19
49
0
0
1
1
21
15
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
50
10
70
10
0
10
20
0
0
10
10
20
50
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
2
12
35
18
33
86
0
0
2
2
37
26
37
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.211
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.40 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.27 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.184
true Heidke skill score: -0.096 true Heidke skill score: -0.093
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.184
true Kuipers skill score: -0.113 true Kuipers skill score: -0.102
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.037 0.185 0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.167 0.259
equitable threat score:
-0.065 -0.070 0.031
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.048 0.667 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.796 0.000
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00