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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
4
7
3
1
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
10
30
49
2
1
4
7
12
11
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
25
13
50
88
38
13
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
16
18
53
86
4
2
7
12
21
19
60
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 4.45 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.237 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.083 0.200 0.108
equitable threat score:
0.238 0.000 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.013 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.083 0.909 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.796 0.429
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00