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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
5
3
1
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
10
32
51
2
1
2
5
12
11
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
0
17
0
0
0
0
33
17
33
83
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
16
18
56
89
4
2
4
9
21
19
60
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 4.64 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.217 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.227 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.083 0.192 0.054
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.004 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.083 0.909 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 0.600
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00