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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
3
0
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
9
11
32
52
1
0
2
3
12
11
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
0
0
40
0
0
0
0
20
0
40
60
60
0
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
16
19
56
91
2
0
4
5
21
19
60
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 -- 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 4.73 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.615 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.667 true Kuipers skill score: 0.086
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.167 0.212 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.444 0.000 0.444
equitable threat score:
0.136 0.023 0.006
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.167 1.000 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.788 0.333
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00