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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
6
0
5
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
5
6
36
47
0
2
4
6
5
11
41
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
30
10
40
0
0
0
0
0
20
40
60
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
2
7
9
11
63
82
0
4
7
11
9
19
72
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 4.27 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.086
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.150
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.115 0.093
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.072 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.545 0.098
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.872 0.333
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00