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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
1
3
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
4
8
37
49
0
1
2
3
5
11
41
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
25
25
63
0
0
0
0
0
13
25
38
13
38
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
4
9
7
14
65
86
0
2
4
5
9
19
72
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.193
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 4.45 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.211
true Heidke skill score: 0.149 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.211
true Kuipers skill score: 0.184 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.111 0.154 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.000 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.066 -0.034 -0.004
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.200 0.727 0.049
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.837 0.333
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00