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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
3
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
5
8
38
51
0
1
1
2
5
11
41
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
33
67
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
33
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
4
7
9
14
67
89
0
2
2
4
9
19
72
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.158
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 4.64 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.263
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.263
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.105
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.148 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.042 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.727 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.843 0.500
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00