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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
0
0
2
2
1
1
2
4
1
3
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
7
12
31
50
1
1
2
4
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
22
11
33
0
0
22
22
11
11
22
44
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
12
21
54
88
2
2
4
7
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.67 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 3.33 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.212 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.239 true Kuipers skill score: -0.062
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.226 0.056
equitable threat score:
-0.091 -0.154 -0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.029 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.760 0.500
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00