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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4
1
3
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
7
12
33
52
1
2
1
4
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
0
0
0
20
40
20
80
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
12
21
58
91
2
4
2
7
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.47 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.079
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.101
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.218 0.027
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.000 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.041 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.769 0.750
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00