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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
8
13
31
52
0
1
2
3
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
20
40
0
0
0
0
0
20
40
60
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
14
23
54
91
0
2
4
5
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 3.47 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.083 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.017 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.333
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00