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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
8
14
32
54
0
1
1
2
8
15
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
25
25
0
0
25
25
0
25
25
50
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
14
25
56
95
0
2
2
4
14
26
60
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.60 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.005 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.933 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.741 0.500
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00