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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
4
2
0
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
17
12
23
52
1
0
3
4
19
12
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
20
0
60
80
40
0
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
30
21
40
91
2
0
5
7
33
21
46
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 -- 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.33 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.545 true Heidke skill score: 0.066
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.080
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.053 0.231 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.036 0.026 0.047
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.053 1.000 0.115
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.769 0.250
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00