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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
13
16
25
54
0
0
1
1
13
17
27
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
33
67
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
23
28
44
95
0
0
2
2
23
30
47
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 3.18 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.291 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.003 0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.704 0.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00