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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
6
10
1
4
7
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
12
16
16
44
1
3
6
10
13
20
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
8
17
0
0
0
0
8
25
50
83
8
33
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
21
29
29
79
2
5
11
18
23
36
41
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.20 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.048
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.545
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.222
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.000 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.009 0.083
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.857
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.261
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.636 0.400
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00