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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
12
19
21
52
0
1
1
2
13
20
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
20
40
0
20
0
20
0
20
20
40
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
21
34
38
93
0
2
2
4
23
36
41
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.60 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.412 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.438 true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.500 0.500 0.333
threat score:
0.071 0.358 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.375 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.040 0.012 0.008
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.077 0.950 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.635 0.500
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00