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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
12
18
21
51
0
1
1
2
13
20
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
20
60
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
40
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
21
32
38
91
0
2
2
4
23
36
41
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 2.55 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.188 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.067 0.340 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.021 -0.006 0.008
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.077 0.900 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.647 0.500
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00