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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
3
2
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
18
18
21
57
1
1
1
3
20
20
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
17
0
33
17
0
0
17
17
17
17
50
50
33
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
29
29
34
92
2
2
2
5
32
32
35
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.50 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.85 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.040 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.048 0.305 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.017 -0.010 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.050 0.900 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.684 0.667
samples: 6 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 9.68 %coverage: 100.00