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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
1
7
0
2
1
3
1
0
1
2
4
5
3
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
1
7
17
21
15
53
1
0
1
2
21
24
17
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
8
58
0
17
8
25
8
0
8
17
33
42
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
2
11
27
34
24
85
2
0
2
3
34
39
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.60 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.21 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.242 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.245 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.375 0.333 0.250
threat score:
0.120 0.375 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.118 0.158 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.014 0.026
probability of detection:
0.750 0.400 0.333
probability of detection:
0.143 0.875 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.333 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.604 0.500
samples: 12 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 19.35 %coverage: 100.00