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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
2
4
2
2
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
15
22
15
52
1
1
2
4
17
23
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
0
17
0
17
0
17
17
17
33
67
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
26
39
26
91
2
2
4
7
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.26 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.500 0.500 0.500
threat score:
0.059 0.415 0.105
equitable threat score:
0.400 0.400 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.032 0.045
probability of detection:
0.500 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.957 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.577 0.500
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00