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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
3
3
2
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
22
16
52
1
1
1
3
17
23
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
0
17
0
17
17
17
17
50
50
33
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
25
39
28
91
2
2
2
5
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.50 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.26 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.520 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.591 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.667 0.500 0.333
threat score:
0.118 0.415 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.500 0.400 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.032 0.006
probability of detection:
0.667 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.118 0.957 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.577 0.667
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00