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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
15
22
17
54
0
1
0
1
17
23
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
0
0
67
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
26
39
30
95
0
2
0
2
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.35 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.118 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.006 -0.017
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.118 0.957 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.593 1.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00