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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
3
1
1
5
5
1
0
6
10
2
1
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
19
20
15
54
5
1
0
6
26
21
15
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
0
0
15
23
8
8
38
38
8
0
46
77
15
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
31
32
24
87
8
2
0
10
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.50 6.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.57 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.023 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.047 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.200 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.077 0.364 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.055 0.044 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.047 -0.074
probability of detection:
0.200 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 1.000
samples: 13 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 20.97 %coverage: 100.00