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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
20
19
16
55
0
1
0
1
21
20
16
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
35
33
28
96
0
2
0
2
37
35
28
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.75 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.048 0.339 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.031 -0.008 -0.017
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.655 1.000
samples: 2 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 3.51 %coverage: 100.00