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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
4
15
1
0
0
1
0
2
1
3
9
5
5
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
4
15
14
15
16
45
0
2
1
3
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
42
16
21
79
5
0
0
5
0
11
5
16
47
26
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
6
24
22
24
25
71
0
3
2
5
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.474 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.20 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.68 2.25 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.211 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.078 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: 0.211 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.070 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.276 0.300 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.101 -0.046 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.116 0.020 0.000
probability of detection:
0.889 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.364 0.750 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 0.667 0.667
samples: 19 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 30.16 %coverage: 100.00