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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
4
13
3
0
0
3
0
1
0
1
9
4
4
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
4
13
16
16
17
49
0
1
0
1
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
18
24
76
18
0
0
18
0
6
0
6
53
24
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
6
21
25
25
27
78
0
2
0
2
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.353 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.44 0.75 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.59 2.45 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.199 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.176 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.207 0.302 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.097 -0.112 -0.049
equitable threat score:
0.060 0.012 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.273 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.538 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.538 0.673 1.000
samples: 17 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 26.98 %coverage: 100.00