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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
7
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
4
3
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
7
18
17
18
53
2
0
1
3
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
30
20
70
0
0
0
0
20
0
10
30
40
30
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
3
11
29
27
29
84
3
0
2
5
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.65 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.111 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.106 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.074 0.304 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.129 0.000 0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.004 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.091 0.850 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.679 0.667
samples: 10 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 15.87 %coverage: 100.00