CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
1
6
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
5
2
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
1
6
17
24
12
53
2
0
1
3
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
22
11
67
0
0
0
0
22
0
11
33
56
22
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
2
10
27
39
19
85
3
0
2
5
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.452
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 2.04 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.177
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.080
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.177
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.074
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.120 0.436 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.000 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.038 0.054 0.021
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.136 0.923 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.547 0.667
samples: 9 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 14.52 %coverage: 100.00